TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Damian Bucko vs Piotr Odelski 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111113118611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Odelski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
9111113118611––
H2H Damian Bucko 1–1 Piotr Odelski Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:3354.0%Our read58.1%to break even at 1.72
short by 4.1pp58.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.72 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (54%)
Odelski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Bucko 1645 vs Odelski 1618
Bucko
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bucko 100% vs Odelski 40%
Bucko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bucko 70% vs Odelski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bucko +5 · Odelski -1
Bucko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Odelski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Odelski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBucko 2.00 / Odelski 1.72
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Odelski)-4.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13240227
Bucko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 59 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back31% 20 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back17% 6 of 36
Odelski1.72
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite69% won 35 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBucko1wins
AwayOdelski1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBuckoOdelskiB − OBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match46.049.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuckoOdelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 597 vs 62 / 10454.6%59.6%326 / 597 vs 62 / 104Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OdelskiBucko 2.00/Odelski 1.72
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Odelski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Odelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 25 · 14:30D. Bucko4481111772P. Odelski50118911113
WSep 10 · 21:00D. Bucko48411119133P. Odelski48118711112
D. Bucko10
WOct 3 · 18:05D. Bucko1.761111123M. Szymanski1.9787100WOct 3 · 16:35D. Bucko1.801111713113K. Guzy1.8699111572WOct 3 · 15:05D. Bucko1.4081111113P. Kos2.75119761WOct 2 · 22:10A. Veliiev1.60741171D. Bucko2.2011119113WOct 2 · 20:00T. Stachera2.2581181182D. Bucko1.54117117113LOct 2 · 19:00D. Bucko1.80111118892M. Szymanski1.86972011113WOct 2 · 18:00D. Bucko2.381111911123A. Veliiev1.52139119102WOct 2 · 16:30D. Bucko1.5014911123K. Zapala2.3512119101LOct 2 · 14:30D. Bucko1.98881181K. Guzy1.7311118113LSep 25 · 22:30D. Bucko1.46461181T. Stachera2.5511118113
P. Odelski10
LOct 3 · 18:35P. Odelski2.059111011102K. Guzy1.66116129123WOct 3 · 17:35A. Veliiev1.54118991P. Odelski2.2591111113LOct 3 · 16:05P. Odelski1.89811761M. Szymanski1.8211611113LOct 1 · 22:40P. Odelski2.056770K. Guzy1.701111113WOct 1 · 20:30K. Zapala2.80161180P. Odelski1.381813113LOct 1 · 19:30B. Gola1.9511811113P. Odelski1.75811581WOct 1 · 18:00K. Guzy1.8610940P. Odelski1.801211113WOct 1 · 15:30A. Duch1.5811811582P. Odelski2.25511811113WOct 1 · 14:00A. Veliiev1.65117111592P. Odelski2.10911517113WSep 25 · 22:00K. Guzy1.911151081P. Odelski1.7881112113
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