TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Tebenko vs Denys Maltsev 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111161412411116
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched: 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 55.3%
92 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 63–45 Denys Maltsev Denys Maltsev has won 45 of their 108 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0555.3%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.6pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
63-45 in 108
Tebenko
Correct
gap of 18 in 108, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1648 vs Maltsev 1538
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 80% vs Maltsev 20%
Tebenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 80% vs Maltsev 40%
Tebenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Maltsev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Tebenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.727 / Maltsev 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Tebenko)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228928
Tebenko1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 62 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it84% 41 of 49
Maltsev2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 85 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko8wins
AwayMaltsev2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko100%5 of 5
AwayMaltsev40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S2Tebenko6Maltsev4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Tebenko8Maltsev2n = 10Tebenko took 8 of 10
S4Tebenko5Maltsev3n = 8Tebenko took 5 of 8
S5Tebenko3Maltsev1n = 4Tebenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoMaltsevT − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.235.8+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime423 / 857 vs 467 / 90849.4%51.4%423 / 857 vs 467 / 908Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.73/Maltsev 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 20:30Y. Tebenko46611144113D. Maltsev46116121162
WSep 30 · 07:05Y. Tebenko506111111113D. Maltsev4311139552
WSep 29 · 15:35Y. Tebenko46111176113D. Maltsev4066111162
WSep 25 · 16:25Y. Tebenko3911611113D. Maltsev34911771
WSep 24 · 12:55Y. Tebenko3841111123D. Maltsev381189101
WSep 23 · 01:15Y. Tebenko331111113D. Maltsev186750
LSep 16 · 08:05Y. Tebenko389121161D. Maltsev4511149113
WSep 15 · 14:35Y. Tebenko331111113D. Maltsev157350
WSep 9 · 09:05Y. Tebenko3811511113D. Maltsev31511871
LSep 8 · 13:05Y. Tebenko4141151292D. Maltsev481151110113
Y. Tebenko10
LOct 2 · 22:30Y. Tebenko1.91114751O. Storozhenko1.8091111113WSep 30 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.917111110113O. Storozhenko1.8011891252LSep 30 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.7511119113Y. Tebenko1.40681191WSep 30 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.8311611113M. Slozka1.83911441WSep 30 · 07:05D. Maltsev2.0011139552Y. Tebenko1.736111111113WSep 30 · 05:35Y. Tebenko1.80812811113I. Pytsko1.91111011972LSep 29 · 18:35Y. Tebenko1.913860I. Pytsko1.801111113WSep 29 · 16:35I. Fashchevskyi2.505990Y. Tebenko1.501111113WSep 29 · 15:35Y. Tebenko1.73111176113D. Maltsev2.0066111162WSep 29 · 14:35M. Slozka1.83751181Y. Tebenko1.8311119113
D. Maltsev10
LOct 2 · 21:30I. Pytsko1.401113113D. Maltsev2.7591190WSep 30 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.104690D. Maltsev1.671111113LSep 30 · 09:35D. Maltsev2.751210971I. Pytsko1.40101211113LSep 30 · 08:35D. Maltsev1.9110890O. Storozhenko1.801211113LSep 30 · 07:05D. Maltsev2.0011139552Y. Tebenko1.736111111113LSep 30 · 05:05D. Maltsev1.50881161M. Slozka2.5011117113WSep 29 · 19:05O. Storozhenko1.8091141162D. Maltsev1.91114114113LSep 29 · 17:35D. Maltsev2.75811381I. Pytsko1.4011411113LSep 29 · 15:35Y. Tebenko1.73111176113D. Maltsev2.0066111162WSep 29 · 13:35I. Fashchevskyi2.2013831182D. Maltsev1.611111114113
Upcoming Matches
Y. Tebenko
Oct 3 · 00:00Y. Tebenko1.83M. Slozka1.83—Oct 3 · 01:00Y. Tebenko1.50I. Fashchevskyi2.50—Oct 3 · 02:00Y. Tebenko1.83I. Pytsko1.83—Oct 3 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.83Y. Parahailo1.83—Oct 3 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.10D. Shchegelskyi1.67—Oct 3 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91O. Storozhenko1.80—Oct 4 · 00:30Y. Tebenko1.83V. Kovalchuk1.83—Oct 4 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.63M. Khomenko1.44—
D. Maltsev
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