TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Skorski vs Jaroslaw Rolak 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161191214117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:18 and never touched: 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Skorski to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
1161191214117––
H2H Michal Skorski 21–16 Jaroslaw Rolak Jaroslaw Rolak has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Rolak beat Skorski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:18What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Skorski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-16 in 37
Skorski
Correct
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorski 1285 vs Rolak 1252
Skorski
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorski 40% vs Rolak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorski 60% vs Rolak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorski -1 · Rolak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Skorski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorski form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorski 1.65 / Rolak 2.05
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Skorski)-0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13219522
Skorski1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 141 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it99% 65 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it77% 109 of 141
Rolak2.05
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 173 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back17% 46 of 264
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorski3wins
AwayRolak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRolak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorski60%3 of 5
AwayRolak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorski5Rolak5n = 10split evenly
S2Skorski4Rolak6n = 10Rolak took 6 of 10
S3Skorski2Rolak8n = 10Rolak took 8 of 10
S4Skorski0Rolak5n = 5Rolak took 5 of 5
S5Skorski2Rolak1n = 3Skorski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorskiRolakS − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.639.7−6.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorskiRolakBasisWin rate · lifetime722 / 1496 vs 647 / 144248.3%44.9%722 / 1496 vs 647 / 1442Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkorskiSkorski 1.65/Rolak 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.2%
Skorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skorski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 20:30M. Skorski351168101J. Rolak4391111123
LSep 27 · 05:40M. Skorski2358100J. Rolak341111123
WSep 24 · 22:15M. Skorski47111195113J. Rolak4478111172
WSep 24 · 18:10M. Skorski331111113J. Rolak258890
LSep 22 · 21:05M. Skorski197750J. Rolak331111113
WSep 22 · 19:20M. Skorski47111276113J. Rolak46710111172
LSep 20 · 07:40M. Skorski2371240J. Rolak361114113
LAug 19 · 00:10M. Skorski364121191J. Rolak4311147113
LAug 18 · 15:00M. Skorski217860J. Rolak331111113
LAug 13 · 23:20M. Skorski52131666112J. Rolak6011141111133
M. Skorski10
LSep 29 · 21:55M. Skorski2.00115591B. Mrugala1.7081111113WSep 29 · 21:30M. Skorski1.70121178113K. Klocek2.00106111142LSep 29 · 20:30M. Skorski1.851168101J. Rolak1.8591111123LSep 29 · 18:55M. Skorski2.306780D. Szlubowski1.521111113WSep 29 · 17:45M. Skorski1.8511811133B. Mrugala1.857117111WSep 29 · 16:15M. Skorski2.0571111113K. Klocek1.65118451LSep 29 · 15:00M. Skorski2.35912961J. Pruszkowski1.52111011113WSep 29 · 00:35B. Mrugala1.8071161162M. Skorski1.85117119113WSep 28 · 22:55W. Iwasyszyn1.714101171M. Skorski2.0011129113WSep 28 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk2.37811841M. Skorski1.5211711113
J. Rolak10
WSep 29 · 22:15J. Rolak2.101110112113K. Klocek1.6091231162LSep 29 · 21:05J. Pruszkowski1.5011185113J. Rolak2.358161171WSep 29 · 20:30M. Skorski1.851168101J. Rolak1.8591111123LSep 29 · 19:20J. Rolak1.859490J. Pruszkowski1.851111113LSep 29 · 18:10D. Szlubowski1.5091111113J. Rolak2.35111741LSep 29 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.83101111113J. Rolak1.87127681WSep 29 · 15:25K. Klocek1.9010860J. Rolak1.751211113LSep 27 · 08:10J. Rolak1.45981141W. Suchecki2.5011118113WSep 27 · 06:30F. Jablonski2.207590J. Rolak1.601111113WSep 27 · 05:40M. Skorski1.7558100J. Rolak1.951111123
Upcoming Matches
M. Skorski
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J. Rolak
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