TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Kurek vs Marek Tkocz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611311119711––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched: 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
611311119711––
H2H Pawel Kurek 1–5 Marek Tkocz Pawel Kurek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Kurek beat Tkocz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:45What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1403 vs Tkocz 1401
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 40% vs Tkocz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 60% vs Tkocz 30%
Kurek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -1 · Tkocz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Tkocz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 2.40 / Tkocz 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Tkocz)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13219458
Kurek2.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 130 of 330
Down 0–1, comes back22% 41 of 191
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 104
Tkocz1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 287 of 426
Up 2–0, closes it95% 162 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it86% 238 of 278
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKurek1wins
AwayTkocz5wins
3 of 6 to a deciderTkocz leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkocz100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek2Tkocz4n = 6Tkocz took 4 of 6
S2Kurek3Tkocz3n = 6split evenly
S3Kurek1Tkocz5n = 6Tkocz took 5 of 6
S4Kurek1Tkocz3n = 4Tkocz took 3 of 4
S5Kurek1Tkocz2n = 3Tkocz took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKurekTkoczK − TBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match31.843.0−11.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime450 / 889 vs 776 / 117250.6%66.2%450 / 889 vs 776 / 1172Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczKurek 2.40/Tkocz 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 29 · 15:10P. Kurek47111177113M. Tkocz4899111182
LSep 23 · 02:00P. Kurek175570M. Tkocz331111113
LSep 22 · 15:35P. Kurek4341171472M. Tkocz511161112113
LAug 19 · 01:10P. Kurek134720M. Tkocz331111113
LJul 9 · 21:35P. Kurek31911651M. Tkocz4211911113
LMar 1 · 08:10P. Kurek4011711382M. Tkocz51911911113
P. Kurek10
LSep 29 · 22:00M. Lebek1.8511118113P. Kurek1.80681171WSep 29 · 20:45P. Kurek1.3311117113O. Sokolowski3.10661191LSep 29 · 19:10P. Kurek1.60119681M. Sikon2.1561111113LSep 29 · 18:00P. Kurek1.44101111632J. Kaczmarek2.60129811113WSep 29 · 16:25P. Kurek1.9061111113M. Adamus1.80116481WSep 29 · 15:10P. Kurek2.00111177113M. Tkocz1.7099111182WSep 28 · 04:20O. Vincenec2.1510870P. Kurek1.621211113LSep 28 · 03:30P. Adamus1.801311113P. Kurek1.9011670WSep 28 · 02:45P. Kurek1.6991111113J. Pruszkowski2.06118761WSep 28 · 01:10P. Kurek1.551211113M. Baron2.3010380
M. Tkocz10
WSep 29 · 23:35M. Adamus2.606860M. Tkocz1.411111113WSep 29 · 21:10P. Adamus2.751011571M. Tkocz1.4012411113LSep 29 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek1.51111158113M. Tkocz2.4187111172LSep 29 · 19:35O. Sokolowski1.4513111110113M. Tkocz2.5815661292LSep 29 · 17:35M. Adamus1.71111145113M. Tkocz2.0263111162WSep 29 · 16:50M. Sikon1.86111155102M. Tkocz1.84581111123LSep 29 · 15:10P. Kurek2.00111177113M. Tkocz1.7099111182WSep 25 · 02:00G. Jurowicz2.454460M. Tkocz1.491111113LSep 25 · 01:10P. Adamus1.7113111110113M. Tkocz2.0015681272LSep 25 · 00:25M. Tkocz1.207770J. Nowak3.901111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Kurek
M. Tkocz
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.