TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Natkaniec vs Cezary Pawlik · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Starts 22:00Scheduled
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Head to head
4 – 33
All 37 meetings · 10.8%
Last 10 · 1–9Same side
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Pawlik beat Natkaniec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNatkaniec 4.20 / Pawlik 1.20
TT Elite Series · #13197295
Natkaniec4.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 35 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 57
Pawlik1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 121 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it81% 95 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNatkaniec1wins
AwayPawlik9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPawlik leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNatkaniecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPawlik100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Natkaniec2Pawlik8n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S2Natkaniec2Pawlik8n = 10Pawlik took 8 of 10
S3Natkaniec5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S4Natkaniec1Pawlik5n = 6Pawlik took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNatkaniecPawlikN − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.137.6−7.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNatkaniecPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 404 vs 302 / 51433.9%58.8%137 / 404 vs 302 / 514Avg sets wonper match1.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match WinnerForecastThe edge lives in the pick, one screen up
No price history
Neither player has a record at this price yet, so there is no odds range to publish.
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 18:00M. Natkaniec22621131C. Pawlik3911116113
WSep 18 · 22:00M. Natkaniec341211113C. Pawlik2710980
LSep 18 · 18:00M. Natkaniec4568111192C. Pawlik48111187113
LSep 11 · 22:00M. Natkaniec31911651C. Pawlik4011711113
LSep 11 · 18:00M. Natkaniec3961211101C. Pawlik3911142123
LJul 24 · 22:00M. Natkaniec124440C. Pawlik331111113
LJul 24 · 18:00M. Natkaniec386131181C. Pawlik3911152113
LJul 3 · 22:00M. Natkaniec30116491C. Pawlik4071111113
LJul 3 · 18:00M. Natkaniec3181490C. Pawlik381116113
LJun 26 · 22:25M. Natkaniec199460C. Pawlik331111113
M. Natkaniec10
LSep 25 · 20:20M. Natkaniec3.807690M. Warzecha1.201111113WSep 25 · 18:45M. Wozniczka1.5551180M. Natkaniec2.301113113LSep 25 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.1811116113M. Natkaniec4.50621131WSep 25 · 17:10M. Natkaniec2.05111210113M. Wolny1.669101271LSep 25 · 16:00M. Natkaniec2.001171391M. Krutak1.7071115113LSep 19 · 02:20M. Natkaniec3.6591111111J. Oracz1.1711133133LSep 19 · 00:45M. Krutak1.521111113M. Natkaniec2.358980WSep 19 · 00:00D. Pyrek1.87118731M. Natkaniec1.8551111113LSep 18 · 23:10M. Natkaniec2.85861181O. Jedrzejowski1.3611119113WSep 18 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.151211113C. Pawlik1.2310980
C. Pawlik10
WSep 25 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.22911119113M. Wolny3.6511591192LSep 25 · 19:10C. Pawlik1.9011510101M. Krutak1.7591112123WSep 25 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.1811116113M. Natkaniec4.50621131WSep 25 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.581512511113M. Wozniczka2.20171011482WSep 25 · 15:10C. Pawlik1.831051111113M. Warzecha1.8712117992LSep 19 · 02:00M. Krutak1.9091111113C. Pawlik1.80117981WSep 19 · 01:10D. Pyrek3.009560C. Pawlik1.331111113LSep 19 · 00:25C. Pawlik1.83711841O. Jedrzejowski1.8711911113WSep 18 · 22:50C. Pawlik1.8571113123J. Oracz1.8511811101LSep 18 · 22:00M. Natkaniec3.151211113C. Pawlik1.2310980
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