TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Machelski vs Jakub Skorupa 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311115117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:46 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Skorupa to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Machelski above · Jakub Skorupa below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Jakub Skorupa at 58.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Michal Machelski 13–14 Jakub Skorupa Michal Machelski has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4658.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Skorupa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-14 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Machelski 1277 vs Skorupa 1343
Skorupa
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Machelski 20% vs Skorupa 40%
Skorupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Machelski 30% vs Skorupa 50%
Skorupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Machelski -1 · Skorupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Skorupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.25 / Skorupa 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Skorupa)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13221077
Machelski2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 121 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back20% 41 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 119
Skorupa1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 153 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it91% 73 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it74% 101 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski5wins
AwaySkorupa5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkorupa57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski3Skorupa7n = 10Skorupa took 7 of 10
S2Machelski7Skorupa3n = 10Machelski took 7 of 10
S3Machelski8Skorupa2n = 10Machelski took 8 of 10
S4Machelski5Skorupa5n = 10split evenly
S5Machelski0Skorupa3n = 3Skorupa took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiSkorupaM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.640.1+1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiSkorupaBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 1103 vs 337 / 70637%47.7%408 / 1103 vs 337 / 706Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkorupaMachelski 2.25/Skorupa 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Skorupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 22:10M. Machelski4071111113J. Skorupa31115961
WAug 30 · 21:00M. Machelski49101711113J. Skorupa431215791
LAug 30 · 16:35M. Machelski3611411552J. Skorupa46611711113
LAug 27 · 04:40M. Machelski29311781J. Skorupa4111811113
WAug 26 · 22:40M. Machelski43101111113J. Skorupa30127741
LJul 28 · 02:20M. Machelski49711126132J. Skorupa531161011153
WJul 26 · 02:45M. Machelski4615119113J. Skorupa351361151
LJul 25 · 18:25M. Machelski4771212972J. Skorupa5311101011113
LJul 22 · 03:05M. Machelski351071171J. Skorupa4212118113
WJul 21 · 21:05M. Machelski4211911113J. Skorupa27711451
M. Machelski10
LSep 30 · 15:50M. Machelski1.617111031A. Skupinski2.2011812113WSep 29 · 02:20M. Machelski2.941911113J. Zelezik1.3517450LSep 29 · 00:45J. Cyndera1.961051111113M. Machelski1.7612115952LSep 29 · 00:00J. Michalik1.361111133M. Machelski2.9075110LSep 28 · 23:10M. Machelski1.90611471A. Staniczek1.8211711113LSep 28 · 22:00M. Machelski2.3711671482A. Kubiak1.529111112113LSep 28 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.7031111113M. Machelski2.00116471WSep 28 · 07:10T. Kordaszewski2.853960M. Machelski1.351111113LSep 28 · 06:25M. Machelski2.809101151A. Fomin1.3711129113WSep 28 · 04:50M. Machelski2.2531111113M. Wolny1.57118781
J. Skorupa10
LSep 30 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.8011411113J. Skorupa1.91811961WSep 30 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.8597100J. Skorupa1.851111123LSep 30 · 03:55G. Mucha1.6091111113J. Skorupa2.20118691LSep 30 · 01:55A. Fomin2.011051111123J. Skorupa1.72121196102WSep 30 · 01:10M. Brunner2.6071161172J. Skorupa1.44116119113WSep 29 · 23:30J. Michalik1.80914991J. Skorupa1.85111211113WSep 29 · 22:40K. Kwiatkowski1.755611101J. Skorupa1.9511119123WSep 29 · 21:55G. Mucha1.836712121J. Skorupa1.87111110143LSep 29 · 19:55A. Fomin1.3611129133J. Skorupa2.9031011111LSep 29 · 19:10P. Gesiarz2.2961111113J. Skorupa1.56117681
Upcoming Matches
M. Machelski
Sep 30 · 17:45M. Machelski2.20G. Mucha1.61—Sep 30 · 18:30M. Machelski2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 30 · 20:05M. Machelski2.00Z. Nocun1.73—Sep 30 · 21:45M. Machelski2.20G. Mucha1.61—Sep 30 · 22:55M. Machelski2.25J. Skorupa1.57—Sep 30 · 23:45M. Machelski2.50H. Tkaczyk1.50—Oct 1 · 00:35M. Machelski2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Oct 1 · 02:10M. Machelski2.00Z. Nocun1.73—
J. Skorupa
Sep 30 · 18:10J. Skorupa1.57A. Skupinski2.25—Sep 30 · 19:20J. Skorupa2.10Z. Nocun1.67—Sep 30 · 20:30J. Skorupa1.91G. Mucha1.80—Sep 30 · 21:20J. Skorupa2.00M. Lewczuk1.73—Sep 30 · 22:55J. Skorupa1.57M. Machelski2.25—Oct 1 · 00:10J. Skorupa1.91G. Mucha1.80—Oct 1 · 01:25J. Skorupa2.10Z. Nocun1.67—Oct 1 · 02:35J. Skorupa2.50H. Tkaczyk1.50—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.