TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jerzy Pelka vs Jakub Kaczmarek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411115711119111
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:41 and never touched: 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timeJerzy Pelka to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
411115711119111
H2H Jerzy Pelka 21–11 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 11 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:4165.1%Our read50.8%to break even at 1.97
clears by 14.3pp50.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.97 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (53%)
Kaczmarek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-11 in 32
Pelka
Wrong
gap of 10 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1393 vs Kaczmarek 1312
Pelka
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 40% vs Kaczmarek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 60% vs Kaczmarek 30%
Pelka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka +1 · Kaczmarek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Pelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 1.97 / Kaczmarek 1.76
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Pelka)+14.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13247244
Pelka1.97
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 87 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Kaczmarek1.76
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 74 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it81% 63 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka6wins
AwayKaczmarek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPelka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka62.5%5 of 8
AwayKaczmarekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka8Kaczmarek2n = 10Pelka took 8 of 10
S2Pelka5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S3Pelka5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S4Pelka6Kaczmarek2n = 8Pelka took 6 of 8
S5Pelka1Kaczmarek3n = 4Kaczmarek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaKaczmarekP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.936.6+6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 941 vs 506 / 134647.5%37.6%447 / 941 vs 506 / 1346Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PelkaPelka 1.97/Kaczmarek 1.76
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.1%
Pelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 05:35J. Pelka4211911113J. Kaczmarek33611791
WJul 17 · 05:10J. Pelka331111113J. Kaczmarek145720
LJul 16 · 23:10J. Pelka48811117112J. Kaczmarek51119711133
LJun 23 · 04:50J. Pelka4411101581J. Kaczmarek4771217113
WApr 30 · 11:55J. Pelka361114113J. Kaczmarek2471250
WApr 30 · 05:55J. Pelka3911116113J. Kaczmarek35881181
LApr 17 · 00:00J. Pelka50111191182J. Kaczmarek51913117113
WApr 15 · 06:00J. Pelka4111811113J. Kaczmarek24611431
LMar 24 · 04:10J. Pelka47118711102J. Kaczmarek49911116123
WMar 19 · 20:35J. Pelka491012511113J. Kaczmarek38121011412
J. Pelka10
WOct 5 · 07:10J. Pelka2.0011136163P. Polok1.7051111141LOct 5 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.75101111113J. Pelka1.90127671LOct 2 · 16:40K. Hetnar1.6611611113J. Pelka2.10811931WOct 2 · 15:55P. Slosarczyk2.451187131J. Pelka1.4581111153LOct 2 · 13:55P. Wiciok1.9781613113J. Pelka1.7511141161LOct 2 · 13:10G. Wichowski2.0881111113J. Pelka1.68113571WOct 2 · 11:30L. Bernacki2.3581191172J. Pelka1.50118117113WOct 2 · 10:40K. Hetnar1.84119961J. Pelka1.8871111113WOct 2 · 09:55P. Slosarczyk2.3511970J. Pelka1.501311113WOct 2 · 07:55P. Wiciok—871191J. Pelka—11119113
J. Kaczmarek10
LOct 5 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.451113113J. Kaczmarek2.3751140WOct 5 · 05:55Y. Fomin1.328915121J. Kaczmarek3.05111113143LOct 1 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.3718911113J. Kaczmarek2.751611821LOct 1 · 15:55J. Nowak1.851111113J. Kaczmarek1.858990WOct 1 · 13:55W. Glanowski1.78121212792J. Kaczmarek1.9310141011113LOct 1 · 13:10R. Niemiec1.5011711133J. Kaczmarek2.406114111LOct 1 · 11:30W. Ptak1.9031111113J. Kaczmarek1.80114681LOct 1 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.35119137113J. Kaczmarek2.90711111182WOct 1 · 09:55J. Nowak1.8051481192J. Kaczmarek1.851112116113LOct 1 · 07:55W. Glanowski1.90711916113J. Kaczmarek1.80116111492
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