TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Szoltysek vs Adrian Eliasz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311119411118––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:10 and never touched: 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeAdrian Eliasz to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Adrian Eliasz @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
1311119411118––
H2H Artur Szoltysek 7–6 Adrian Eliasz Adrian Eliasz has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Eliasz beat Szoltysek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:1054.2%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.4pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Eliasz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szoltysek 1281 vs Eliasz 1334
Eliasz
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szoltysek 20% vs Eliasz 80%
Eliasz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szoltysek 50% vs Eliasz 80%
Eliasz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szoltysek +1 · Eliasz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Eliasz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Eliasz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzoltysek 1.90 / Eliasz 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Eliasz)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243530
Szoltysek1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 58 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Eliasz1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 55 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it66% 35 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzoltysek7wins
AwayEliasz3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSzoltysek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzoltysek87.5%7 of 8
AwayEliaszn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szoltysek8Eliasz2n = 10Szoltysek took 8 of 10
S2Szoltysek6Eliasz4n = 10Szoltysek took 6 of 10
S3Szoltysek3Eliasz7n = 10Eliasz took 7 of 10
S4Szoltysek8Eliasz2n = 10Szoltysek took 8 of 10
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzoltysekEliaszS − EBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.136.5+4.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzoltysekEliaszBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 613 vs 357 / 91342.6%39.1%261 / 613 vs 357 / 913Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
EliaszSzoltysek 1.90/Eliasz 1.80
Miss
What we said
54.2%
Eliasz · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Adrian Eliasz @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Szoltysek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 13:55A. Szoltysek3913114113A. Eliasz391191181
LOct 4 · 08:35A. Szoltysek391381171A. Eliasz4215115113
WJun 21 · 08:10A. Szoltysek3911116113A. Eliasz34891161
WMar 15 · 12:50A. Szoltysek4211711133A. Eliasz389117111
WDec 21 · 12:50A. Szoltysek4211119113A. Eliasz24431161
LOct 26 · 11:35A. Szoltysek541112811122A. Eliasz47414114143
WOct 26 · 05:55A. Szoltysek3511112113A. Eliasz31751181
WOct 12 · 11:00A. Szoltysek4311129113A. Eliasz367101181
LSep 20 · 10:10A. Szoltysek35781281A. Eliasz43111110113
WSep 7 · 13:35A. Szoltysek4311129113A. Eliasz317101131
A. Szoltysek10
WOct 4 · 12:40A. Szoltysek2.559111210113T. Piotrowski1.46117101272LOct 4 · 11:25A. Szoltysek1.808115111P. Krukar1.9011511133LOct 4 · 10:10B. Wisniewski1.881211133A. Szoltysek1.82109110LOct 4 · 09:25A. Szoltysek1.951125101W. Iwasyszyn1.7561111123LOct 4 · 08:35A. Szoltysek1.751381171A. Eliasz1.9515115113WOct 4 · 06:55A. Szoltysek1.901113123B. Wisniewski1.75811100WOct 4 · 05:40A. Szoltysek1.9511511113W. Iwasyszyn1.75811861LOct 4 · 04:10A. Szoltysek1.8511116772M. Lukaszewski1.85871111113WOct 4 · 03:00A. Szoltysek—11166113P. Krukar—3141181WSep 26 · 13:55J. Przewlocki1.771211651A. Szoltysek1.8314911113
A. Eliasz10
WOct 4 · 13:05B. Wisniewski1.85691391A. Eliasz1.80111111113WOct 4 · 12:15A. Eliasz1.85581111113W. Iwasyszyn1.8511116682LOct 4 · 10:35A. Eliasz1.956940P. Krukar1.771111113WOct 4 · 09:50T. Piotrowski1.7111661182A. Eliasz2.02711116113WOct 4 · 08:35A. Szoltysek1.751381171A. Eliasz1.9515115113WOct 4 · 07:20A. Eliasz1.9011112153P. Krukar1.807611131WOct 4 · 06:05B. Wisniewski1.90681181A. Eliasz1.7511117113LOct 4 · 04:55W. Iwasyszyn2.606111111113A. Eliasz1.4211139762WOct 4 · 03:25M. Lukaszewski2.00381141A. Eliasz1.7111117113WOct 3 · 19:40A. Eliasz1.801111113M. Skorski1.853570
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