TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Shcherbak vs Ruslan Haiseniuk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1139118111210911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Ruslan Haiseniuk below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Denys Shcherbak at 72.8%
95 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 15–8 Ruslan Haiseniuk Ruslan Haiseniuk has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Shcherbak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Shcherbak
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1749 vs Haiseniuk 1639
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 60% vs Haiseniuk 40%
Shcherbak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 60% vs Haiseniuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +1 · Haiseniuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Shcherbak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shcherbak form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.36 / Haiseniuk 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Shcherbak)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13196557
Shcherbak1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 159 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it92% 92 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it76% 125 of 164
Haiseniuk3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 45 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back23% 19 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak7wins
AwayHaiseniuk3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderShcherbak leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak66.7%6 of 9
AwayHaiseniukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak9Haiseniuk1n = 10Shcherbak took 9 of 10
S2Shcherbak7Haiseniuk3n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S3Shcherbak7Haiseniuk3n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S4Shcherbak2Haiseniuk2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakHaiseniukS − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match35.827.9+7.9per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakHaiseniukBasisWin rate · lifetime352 / 682 vs 398 / 73751.6%54%352 / 682 vs 398 / 737Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.36/Haiseniuk 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Haiseniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 06:35D. Shcherbak4911981292R. Haiseniuk463111110113
LSep 25 · 17:35D. Shcherbak35117891R. Haiseniuk4181111113
WSep 25 · 01:30D. Shcherbak331111113R. Haiseniuk189540
LSep 19 · 10:05D. Shcherbak35118971R. Haiseniuk4291111113
WSep 18 · 15:35D. Shcherbak331111113R. Haiseniuk176830
WSep 17 · 22:00D. Shcherbak331111113R. Haiseniuk268990
WSep 10 · 22:00D. Shcherbak331111113R. Haiseniuk176560
WSep 5 · 06:05D. Shcherbak331111113R. Haiseniuk156630
WSep 4 · 03:00D. Shcherbak371211143R. Haiseniuk24102120
WAug 28 · 17:05D. Shcherbak3731211113R. Haiseniuk331110391
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 26 · 05:35S. Rak1.677830D. Shcherbak2.101111113LSep 25 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.361111113D. Shcherbak3.007960LSep 25 · 17:35R. Haiseniuk3.4081111113D. Shcherbak1.30117891WSep 25 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.801110871D. Shcherbak1.9181211113WSep 25 · 14:05I. Romaniak2.00711961D. Shcherbak1.7311611113LSep 25 · 12:05D. Neborak1.9141112113D. Shcherbak1.801151041WSep 25 · 03:00I. Romaniak2.005460D. Shcherbak1.731111113WSep 25 · 01:30D. Shcherbak1.401111113R. Haiseniuk2.759540LSep 24 · 23:30D. Neborak2.251111113D. Shcherbak1.579580WSep 24 · 21:30S. Rak1.671143111D. Shcherbak2.1091111133
R. Haiseniuk10
LSep 26 · 04:35D. Pesternikov1.2511911113R. Haiseniuk3.75711761LSep 25 · 19:05I. Romaniak1.831111113R. Haiseniuk1.835940WSep 25 · 17:35R. Haiseniuk3.4081111113D. Shcherbak1.30117891WSep 25 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.20511761R. Haiseniuk4.3311611113LSep 25 · 13:35D. Neborak1.671111133R. Haiseniuk2.1035110LSep 25 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.361271011113R. Haiseniuk3.00101112752WSep 25 · 02:30D. Neborak1.5068130R. Haiseniuk2.501111153LSep 25 · 01:30D. Shcherbak1.401111113R. Haiseniuk2.759540WSep 25 · 00:00I. Kozachuk1.331111811112R. Haiseniuk3.25913118133WSep 24 · 22:00I. Romaniak1.73911771R. Haiseniuk2.0011911113
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