TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Minda vs Bartosz Sulkowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 23Finished
Michal Minda
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191412811118––
Bartosz Sulkowski
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:27 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeBartosz Sulkowski to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Minda above · Bartosz Sulkowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 84 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Bartosz Sulkowski at 55.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Michal Minda 23–24 Bartosz Sulkowski Michal Minda has won 23 of their 47 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Minda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-24 in 47
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Minda 1421 vs Sulkowski 1609
Sulkowski
Wrong
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Minda 20% vs Sulkowski 100%
Sulkowski
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Minda 50% vs Sulkowski 70%
Sulkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Minda -3 · Sulkowski +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMinda 1.80 / Sulkowski 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sulkowski)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13179262
Minda1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 269 of 429
Up 2–0, closes it96% 111 of 116
Up 1–0, closes it81% 203 of 252
Sulkowski1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 159 of 484
Down 0–1, comes back17% 48 of 285
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMinda5wins
AwaySulkowski5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMinda66.7%4 of 6
AwaySulkowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Minda6Sulkowski4n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S2Minda6Sulkowski4n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S3Minda5Sulkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Minda4Sulkowski5n = 9Sulkowski took 5 of 9
S5Minda2Sulkowski3n = 5Sulkowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMindaSulkowskiM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.841.1−0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMindaSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1016 / 1983 vs 585 / 130551.2%44.8%1016 / 1983 vs 585 / 1305Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiMinda 1.80/Sulkowski 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Minda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 18:30M. Minda3941111672B. Sulkowski46116711113
LSep 9 · 04:00M. Minda31711941B. Sulkowski4211911113
WAug 27 · 04:50M. Minda47511812113B. Sulkowski48118111082
WAug 26 · 13:55M. Minda42128110113B. Sulkowski46101171172
WAug 26 · 03:20M. Minda331111113B. Sulkowski197570
LAug 20 · 13:30M. Minda4511118872B. Sulkowski50981111113
WAug 5 · 13:30M. Minda43111011113B. Sulkowski35712881
LJul 15 · 11:50M. Minda4111111091B. Sulkowski4481312113
WJul 11 · 12:10M. Minda4211911113B. Sulkowski31511871
LJul 10 · 13:30M. Minda45611111162B. Sulkowski50117138113
M. Minda10
LSep 23 · 18:30A. Daniel1.201111113M. Minda4.335450LSep 23 · 17:40D. Solilo1.61111111113M. Minda2.20813661LSep 23 · 16:55M. Minda2.63115871K. Staszczyk1.4441111113WSep 23 · 15:45M. Minda1.67111146113K. Klocek2.1066111122LSep 23 · 14:20J. Zochniak1.45121011183M. Minda2.2710126161WSep 23 · 13:30R. Stapor1.822590M. Minda1.881111113WSep 23 · 11:25W. Iwasyszyn3.55511971M. Minda1.1811911113WSep 23 · 10:35M. Zwolinski2.04111113832M. Minda1.701381111113WSep 23 · 09:00A. Szoltysek3.157780M. Minda1.301111113LSep 22 · 19:40M. Minda1.83121231172P. Blocho1.831410119113
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 23 · 19:15K. Staszczyk1.2811911952B. Sulkowski3.50811711113WSep 23 · 17:20A. Daniel1.2811711772B. Sulkowski3.50611911113WSep 23 · 16:30K. Klocek2.20117751B. Sulkowski1.6191111113WSep 23 · 15:00D. Solilo1.3611211992B. Sulkowski3.00711811113WSep 22 · 13:55B. Sulkowski1.98128511113A. Sobel1.75101111582LSep 22 · 12:40B. Sulkowski2.40118991J. Zochniak1.5081111113LSep 22 · 11:25B. Sulkowski1.5011117992D. Solilo2.35451111113WSep 22 · 10:10P. Blocho1.758760B. Sulkowski1.901111113WSep 22 · 09:25B. Sulkowski1.83111011113B. Czerwinski1.83912841LSep 22 · 08:35A. Sobel1.58121129113B. Sulkowski2.20106111152
Upcoming Matches
M. Minda
B. Sulkowski
Sep 24 · 15:25B. Sulkowski—K. Klocek——Sep 24 · 16:55B. Sulkowski—D. Solilo——Sep 24 · 18:05B. Sulkowski—J. Zochniak——Sep 24 · 19:15B. Sulkowski—M. Minda——Sep 24 · 20:30B. Sulkowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 24 · 21:25B. Sulkowski—D. Solilo——Sep 24 · 21:50B. Sulkowski—K. Staszczyk——Sep 24 · 23:20B. Sulkowski—K. Rudomina——Sep 25 · 24:10B. Sulkowski—K. Klocek——
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